Being now in my eighty-first year, I thought it might be appropriate (but more likely patronising) to give you young folk some ideas about what ageing is about. I can’t pretend I’ve got it all right, but I’ll give it a shot!

 

There are many impacts of aging, but let’s start with some of the obvious physical ones.

 

I go to the barbershop. My sparse hair still grows, albeit more slowly these days, and perversely the less of it I have the shorter I like it cut. The barber knocks off a few wisps here and shortens a few odd strands there. Finally he is done and I shake off the smock he has enveloped me in and restoring my glasses I go to pay my bill. “Is sir a pensioner?” he politely asks. I assure him I am not and then because of my honesty have to pay a substantial fee for a few minutes work.

 

As I walk home, I ruminate over the fact that many of my friends and relatives are pensioners. It doesn’t rankle me that they get discounts at the barber. Barbers have to earn a living and it’s good to see our society can give concessions to those who have ceased working.

 

I continued to work until my late seventies and wanting to be useful to some degree have continued to do some pro bono work since.. And to tell the truth, when I think about it, the barber’s hourly rate is probably more reasonable than mine was when I charged my clients!

 

I enjoy the walk home, but the muscle above my left ankle is still a little sore from this morning’s walk.

 

When I get home my wife asks, “How much was the haircut?”

 

“Twenty five dollars!” I reply

 

“What?” she says,”For a mere five minutes work?”

 

I leap to the barber’s defence. “Well he did say he only charged me five dollars to cut it.”

 

“Then what was the other twenty dollars for?”

 

“That was for finding it!”

.

Up until my late seventies I was an inveterate jogger. The doctor said I should give up jogging because it was too damaging on my joints and muscles. I tried walking for eighteen months or so, but it was pretty boring. When you’ve exercised properly, really exercised, you huff and puff and you sweat. Walking couldn’t do that for me, so I eased back into a light jogging routine. When I walked I came home just with the notion that it was done. Program completed; kilometres finished – but not very satisfying. It doesn’t really seem exercise without the pulse racing a bit and finishing somewhat out of breath. And then came the joy of relaxing to restore tired limbs.  When I had that sort of experience at least it felt as if I had accomplished something! It doesn’t matter that everyone who runs in my neighbourhood, young and old alike, didn’t seem to have much problem passing me!

 

But then an arthritic knee and numerous muscle strains compelled me (again with my doctor’s urging) to go back to walking. But I have reconciled myself to walking. One advantage is that I can walk every morning with my wife. (I must confess that after years of pretty rigorous exercise that I have been compelled to curtail, I believe she is now fitter than me!) So we have a regular, dailymorning stroll. She likes to stop and talk to a couple of the walkers we know and pat a dog or two she is fond of. She obviously enjoys this and I am pleased for her.

 

And then the nights! I sleep easily and well. Consequently this regular urge to have to get out of bed and urinate, and thus disturb my soporific slumber, is such a nuisance. Or in the morning I kneel down to pull a few weeds out of my garden and then it becomes a struggle just to stand up again!

 

Another side effect of aging is the fact that the shop assistants and “check-out chicks” looking up at my sparse grey hair seem so frequently now in a patronising way to call me “Luv”. 

 

One day I was walking by myself on a walking track a couple of kilometres from home. There was a middle aged woman walking a little yappy dog. The dog barked incessantly at me until the woman said, “Be quiet! Can’t you see he is harmless?”

 

I tolerate these things but they are a little demeaning!

 

That wonderful “Goon Show” participant and quite respectable Welsh tenor, Harry Secombe, used to sing a song titled The Best is Yet to Be..

 

Now whilst I am an optimist by nature, it is hard to believe that at my stage in life “the best is yet to be”!

 

But nevertheless I do believe that life still holds some purpose and some pleasure still for me.

 

I remember my late, great psychologist friend, the good Doctor Phil Harker discussing with me some of his clients who were contemplating suicide. In his inimitable way, he would ask them, “What is so good about death that you should want it?”

 

After a little discussion it always became apparent that he client did not so much want to die but did not want continue living in their existing frame of mind!

 

Fortunately, that (particularly with the help of someone as skilful as Phil) can be changed.

 

As I have related many times in my essays, we often believe the world is an awful place. But the solution to pursuing happiness is oftimes not to try and change the world but to change our mind. How we see the world is the most important determinate of our psychological wellbeing. Peace of mind doesn’t come from what happens in the external world but from how well we manage our internal world.

 

So, I have told you about some of the disadvantages of growing old. Perhaps I should redress the balance of things and tell you of the advantages.

 

I have often related to you that the good Dr Phil advised that psychological maturity comes from:

1. Knowing yourself.
2. Accepting yourself and then
3. Forgetting yourself.

 

You would expect that as we age we should come to know ourselves better. And often it does. But there is a trap that many fall into. Essentially sometimes we can’t afford to know that which we are reluctant to accept.

 

Suppose, for example, my sense of self has been built on a perception that I am a great public speaker. I will then go to great lengths to confirm that I am indeed a great public speaker. I find ways of erasing or diminishing any evidence to the contrary. I surround myself with those who are happy to affirm my talent in this regard and ways to discredit any evidence to the contrary.

 

By erecting such facades I shield myself from any evidence to the contrary. Consequently I have avoided any evidence that is contrary to my self-concept, It is almost impossible to “know myself” under such circumstances.

 

In order to properly “know ourselves” we must be open to accept evidence that might threaten our carefully constructed identity..

 

I have been lucky in my life time to have had friends and colleagues who were prepared to challenge me. If you want to truly know yourself this is invaluable feedback.

 

Even admitting the possibility of this cognitive error, I suspect that most of us, as we grow older, become reconciled with who we are, and that is a great blessing!

 

But what a fortunate life I’ve had. There have been many challenges and some successes. And on the way I have come to know some marvellous people and shared so joyously in their triumphs. And when I have experienced difficulty, which has sometimes been the case, how rewarding to have such personal support and love.

 

As we grow older we have reduced capacity to offer physical assistance to those around us. But ageing doesn’t curtail our ability to show love and compassion.

 

So then the physical problems of ageing seem to me more than compensated by the spiritual benefits of a life that continues to help somewhat in improving the lot of other people. (It is interesting that the Dalai Llama says, “If you want to make others happy, be altruistic. If you want to be happy, be altruistic.”) I complain about the physical symptoms of ageing and yet I believe I am happier than I have ever been in my life.

 

Who cares what I look like! My balding pate and my expanding stomach are not of any great concern to me. And what if I can’t run any longer? I still have some capacity to assist others and enhance their emotional and spiritual wellbeing.

 

In my professional life that has always been my goal. My latter career as an executive coach was very fulfilling for me. I was stimulated and enervated every month by the people I coached. They probably don’t appreciate how much they gave to me. (Conventionally it is assumed the benefits go the other way!)

 

And then there are mature and gratifying relationships, not only with your friends but of your adult children – not to mention the joy of grandchildren, and now a great grandchild!

 

When I sometimes bemoan the problems of increasing age I am reminded of the injunctions of Gordon Livingstone outlined in his fabulous little book Never Stop Dancing..

 

This is what he advised for those of us growing older:

 

1. Stop complaining. A couple of generations earlier, you would have been dead for ten years.
2. If you don’t have any activity in your life that causes you to lose track of time, you need to find something.
3. If you go to the doctor more than ten times per year and don’t have a terminal illness, get a new hobby.
4. It’s true that they haven’t written any good music for thirty years. Neither your children nor your grandchildren want to hear about it!
5. If anyone wants to know what life was like when you were their age, they’ll ask.
6. Don’t worry about avoiding temptation. As you grow older it will avoid you.
7. Never mind dying with dignity; try living with dignity.

 

Now there’s some very good advice.

 

But I found that I couldn’t write a piece on ageing without quoting Tennyson. From  his poem, Ulysses this is part of what he wrote:

Tho’ much is taken, much abides; and tho’
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven; that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.

 

Now that’s an ethos for those of us who are ageing! We may not be that “strength that in old days moved earth and heaven” but there is no reason why in our latter years we can’t still lead meaningful lives.

 

 

And another thing!

 

Just recently, my good friend Larry Whitehead sent me a few notes he had put together about climate change.

 

Larry is a chemical engineer and therefore has appropriate credentials to comment on the climate change issue. And I must add that he and his wife and two sons have a great concern for the natural environment.

 

His notes were of such significance I have (with his permission) opted to share them with you.

 

Larry’s Notes on Climate Change

 

The IPCC are abandoning their more alarmist forecasts of global warming, by toning down the more outrageous modelling assumptions, and this is a positive for this debate. Australia is beginning to seriously debate whether to pursue net zero emissions; European nations are coming to the realisation that renewable energy alone cannot reliably and economically viably provide the energy our modern lifestyle is built on; Bill Gates has said that given the existing state of technology there is no practical alternative to fossil fuels. (And Bill has put lots of his own money, via the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, into research to come to that conclusion.) Despite the passion for action by the climate change advocates, the world’s use of fossil fuels and emissions of so called greenhouse gas (GHG) is going up. When our politicians tell us “the world is moving to renewable energy” they should add except for China, the US, India and Russia to name the top 4 emitters.

 

I believe however that it is time to bring the debate out of the shadows and question whether GHG emissions are responsible for the warming temperatures observed since about the beginning of the Industrial Age. Like Greta Thunberg, I am not an environmental scientist but there seems to be enough other evidence to question the “Science”.

 

What is generally known?

 

• Incoming electromagnetic energy reaches the earth’s surface and some of it is absorbed and some is re-emitted away from the earth as long wave infra-red energy. Some of this energy that is moving away from the earth is captured briefly by the main GHG’s, water vapour, CO2, methane and nitrous oxide then re-emitted in all directions some of which is returned to earth.
• There is a correlation between increased CO2 and observed temperature rise since beginning of the Industrial Age when fossil fuel consumption began to rapidly increase.
• Correlation is not causation and the statements “fossil fuel combustion has resulted in the observed increase CO2 in the atmosphere” and “atmospheric increase of GHG’s from human activities are responsible for all observed temperature rise”, are assumptions not proven facts.
• Behind the statements about 1.5⁰C temperature rise since the start of the Industrial Age is another assumption that the global average temperature would be exactly the same as it was 250 years ago but for human produced emissions of GHG.

Unlike Greta I have studied Chemical Engineering and the very first lesson was about mass and energy balances. What I would find more convincing is a mass balance to show that the increase GHG’s in the atmosphere can be shown to be related to fossil fuel consumption. Then an energy balance to show that energy directed earth by the radiative forcing effect mentioned above can be shown to have produced the observed temperature rise.

 

No doubt this would be extremely difficult to do and many assumptions would be required about the absorption of GHG’s in the ocean and land and these could be manipulated to get the outcome the modeller desires. Such an exercise however helps to prove whether or not the assumption that human produced GHG’s are resulting in dangerous “planet boiling” (to quote Mr Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United nations) is true.

 

But surely the correlation obviously illuminates the cause?

 

• As there are large energy flows onto and away from the earth, I used to think that these would be in balance over time but a small and continuous rise of GHG’s would result steady temperature rise. This line of thought excludes any other influences and we know that temperatures were rising at the end of the Little Ice Age which coincides with the beginning of the Industrial Age when CO2 levels were only 250 – 280ppm. What caused the switch from the Medieval Warm period and triggered this Little Ice Age? What about the cool Dark Ages after the Roman Warm period? These observations suggest that it is futile to assume the earth’s temperature is in homeostasis but varies considerably driven by forces we do not fully understand.
• I understand that about 95% of CO2 emissions are from natural sources and natural emissions vary depending on different types of vegetation. Human activity has had a major effect on vegetation since the beginning of the Industrial Age. There is evidence from satellite observations that vegetation coverage is increasing.
• The atmosphere contains an average of about 4% by volume (40,000ppm) of water vapour, dependent on temperature, compared to 400ppm for CO2. (It is worth noting that for 1kWh of electrical energy production using steam raised by coal firing, produces 800g CO2 but 1,500g water vapour. Using nuclear energy there is no CO2 emissions but the same amount of water vapour is produced.)
• Ultimately all energy comes from the sun. We know about varying distance of the earth from the sun due to elliptical orbits. We know solar flares effect the upper atmosphere which in turn effects cloud formation which in turn effects the amount of energy reaching the earth’s surface and therefore atmospheric temperature.
• As a teenager in 1960’s, I spent an afternoon with an old farmer who told me about his experiences of the Federation Drought in eastern Australia which occurred up to about 1905; at Cloncurry in Qld there used to be a sign on the road into the town that proclaimed the hottest temperature ever recorded in Australia was in 1890’s and was above 50⁰C; the biggest flood in Brisbane was in 1890’s and no flood since has risen to that level (although there are many other factors such as river dredging, increased runoff due to hard surfaces, human made flow restrictions built in the river and now the construction of Wivenhoe Dam). The point is that there were extreme weather events around 1890’s when CO2 levels about 295ppm. 
• The earth’s atmosphere and ocean currents transfer heat from equatorial regions towards the poles. We know El Nino events result in warmer temps but we don’t know what triggers an El Nino event.
• If increased temperatures are only caused by increased CO2 concentrations for which we now have 60 years of good data, why have IPCC model based predictions always overestimated the actual observed temperatures? And many alarmist forecasts such as Tim Flannery saying around 2005 that water storage dams in eastern Australia would never re-fill, or in 2006, American James Hansen predicting a 25m sea level rise “within a decade”. The continued over estimation of temperatures in IPCC forecasts surely begs the question about the validity of the modelling.
• As noted above we measure warming through global average temperature. Temperature is defined as the sum of the internal energy of all the molecules in a system. The atmosphere is the biggest open system and the internal energy of the molecules within it vary widely depending on location (e.g. at the tropics or the poles) and the height from the earth. Although I have proposed an energy balance to provide evidence of the link (not just the correlation of) between atmospheric GHG and temperature I consider it is questionable whether a “global average temperature” can effectively and accurately be calculated now. The IPCC however, through their claims about temperature rise since pre Industrial Age, would have us believe that they can effectively measure global average temperature now and 250 years ago accurately enough so they can say there has been a rise of 1.5⁰C. If it is possible to accurately determine the global average temperature 250 years ago why not determine what it was 500 years ago at the beginning of the Little Ice Age?
• Some geological evidence suggests that in previous warming periods temperature rises occurred in advance of rises in CO2 concentration. Studies of 60 years of reliable datasets from Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii shows the best mathematical correlation is obtained when observed CO2 rises subsequently to observed temperature rises. This suggests that the other factors warm the atmosphere which in turn warms the oceans reducing the solubility of CO2 which is then released into the atmosphere.

What about other factors?

 

Given the observations above it seems that the simple correlation between human produced GHG’s effects and global temperature is at best misleading. My question is not if human produced GHG’s result in warming temperatures but how much does it contribute, in relation to all the other natural effects?All IPCC modelling includes “tuning” the model by applying past results into the future predictions. They consider that all past temperature changes were solely due to atmospheric GHG concentrations and ignore other factors. If there are other factors, as there appears to be, and they are not included the modelling process all future model predictions will overestimate future temperatures. This has been the case for all IPCC model predictions. I would have thought that constantly erring in same manner would be cause to reconsider the methods used. After all, insanity is continually doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome.

We need to be sure about the causes so that we solve the right problems. Humanity has evolved within the existing biosphere and if our activities irreparably damage the biosphere humanity is doomed. But there no going back; there are about 8 billion people on the planet now and without modern technology based on fossil fuel consumption the earth could probably only support about half that number people. So before we rush to end fossil fuel let’s be sure our actions are based on provable and reproducible facts rather than questionable assumptions as we are doing now.

 

 

Thank you for these insights Larry. I hope other people find them useful.

 

Ted Scott